DSMS Intelligence
The system, thinking. Prioritised risks, margin opportunities and forward forecasts — generated from live operational data.
What needs your attention
DSMS IntelligenceRanked by operational and financial impact
RB4 will miss the next RBCT slot without intervention
−2 760 tAt current intake of 1 180 t/day, RB4 reaches the 12 000 t train-minimum in 2.3 days — 14 hours after the booked TFR slot. Diverting two Ermelo Mining rail-grade loads closes the gap by tomorrow 16:00.
Komati Coal mass variance trending out of tolerance
3.4% avgKomati Coal’s 7-day mean variance has climbed from 1.8% to 3.4%, breaching the 3% tolerance on 9 of 31 loads. Pattern correlates with their afternoon shift — likely a tare-weight calibration drift on their side.
C4-ARE-SL-RB3 dwell exceeds target — oxidation risk
13 daysThis sub-position has held 6 240 t for 13 days against a 10-day target. Extended dwell on RB3 grade raises ash and lowers CV. Prioritise it in the next two dispatch parcels to protect quality.
Margin opportunities
DSMS IntelligenceActions that protect or grow realised price
Blend Spiral wash into RB4 parcels to lift realised price
+R 38/tSpiral is producing 23.6 MJ/kg at 12.4% ash. A 25% blend into RB4 dispatch lifts the composite into the RB1 band, capturing an estimated R 38/t uplift across the next 36 000 t — roughly R 1.37m.
Shift Vaal Logistics volume to Khanyisa to cut variance cost
R 210k/moVaal Logistics (Haulier Declared format) carries the highest reconciliation overhead. Re-routing 18% of their volume to Khanyisa Collieries (Standard Bridge, 4.6★) reduces disputed tonnage without raising landed cost.
Forward forecast
DSMS Intelligence14-day projection from current trajectories
14-day dispatch forecast: 3 trains, 318 wagons
20 670 tBased on current intake velocity and stockpile trajectories, the model projects 3 dispatchable trains in the next 14 days — RB2 on day 3, RB2 on day 8, and RB3 on day 13 once C1/C4 sub-positions consolidate.
Month-end stock-on-hand projected at 82 400 t
+8.9%Intake is outpacing dispatch by ~640 t/day. Without an additional rail slot, RB2 approaches its 45 000 t pad capacity by month-end. Recommend booking one extra TFR slot in week 3.
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